We have a Conservative leadership election in the wake of the EU election results.
Here are the facts:
The EU will not reopen negotiations.
Our current extension will run out at Halloween.
There are three options for parliament:
- Accept May’s deal
- Revoke Article 50
- Crash out with No Deal
The first has been repeatedly rejected by parliament.
The third will not be able to win over the house of commons, but will be the default should nothing be agreed.
The Brexit party would like to be part of negotiations but since the EU are not interested that won’t help.
Something needs to move, and that will either take a fresh election or a referendum.
We have a weak opposition (unable to decide if it is pro or anti Brexit) and a minority government unable to act.
The Conservatives will consider a Step to the Right (timewarp anyone?) to appeal to the Brexit party voters.
The Brexit party had no manifesto so its impossible to know what form of Brexit that they want. The best guess would be the No Deal option.
3 thoughts on “Brexit Options”
Is it a fact that the EU won’t reopen negotiations? I know it’s a fact they won’t renegotiate anything unless the UK government will remove some of its “red lines”. But if the UK government decided that free movement wasn’t such a sticking point after all, or jurisdiction of the ECHR, would they be willing to negotiate some more then?
The EU won’t reopen negotiations without some of the red lines being moved. I don’t see any of the Brexit favouring parties doing that. The remain parties would argue that remaining would be better than that.
Yes, that is a big part of the problem with Brexit: it does not lend itself to compromise. Any kind of ‘soft’ Brexit simply defeats the purpose to the true believer because it would still involve pooling our sovereignty, and is just as unacceptable to a remainer because it is so obviously inferior to remaining a member.