We have a Conservative leadership election in the wake of the EU election results.
Here are the facts:
The EU will not reopen negotiations.
Our current extension will run out at Halloween.
There are three options for parliament:
- Accept May’s deal
- Revoke Article 50
- Crash out with No Deal
The first has been repeatedly rejected by parliament.
The third will not be able to win over the house of commons, but will be the default should nothing be agreed.
The Brexit party would like to be part of negotiations but since the EU are not interested that won’t help.
Something needs to move, and that will either take a fresh election or a referendum.
We have a weak opposition (unable to decide if it is pro or anti Brexit) and a minority government unable to act.
The Conservatives will consider a Step to the Right (timewarp anyone?) to appeal to the Brexit party voters.
The Brexit party had no manifesto so its impossible to know what form of Brexit that they want. The best guess would be the No Deal option.